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The space junk GRACE-2 is forecast to reentry Thursday, 21 Dec 2017 at 07:54 UTC +/- 8 hours
GRACE-2

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Thu 14-Dec-2017 22:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk GRACE-2 (27392U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Thursday, 21 Dec 2017 at 07:54 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-25
201743007U5215313787Reentered!
Lat=51.6   Lon=253.4
FLOCK 2E'-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-30
199841481U5215914988Reentered!
Lat=-51.3   Lon=125.1
GRACE-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-21
200227392U8924023189Forecast
IRIDIUM 6 [+]
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-23
199724794U8650316591Forecast
FLOCK 2E-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-24
199841571U5227426790Forecast
IRIDIUM 34 [+]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-4
199724969U8667317793Forecast
OSNSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-13
199841939U5229928990Forecast
FLOCK 2E-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-23
199841484U5230930591Forecast
ISS DEB (ROSA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-30
199842813U5234233291Forecast
IRIDIUM 43 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-3
199725039U8644923591Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-3
200629053U7228127790Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-20
201540881U203455139123Forecast
FLOCK 2E-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-21
199841563U5232231691Forecast
GRACE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-1
200227391U8929929390Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-3
199841313U5230129891Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-3
199841895U5233132491Forecast
COLUMBIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-4
199842702U5234633991Forecast
FLOCK 2E-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-5
199841487U5233433391Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-16
201741912U2721097128367Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-19
199841578U5231030491Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-28
199841575U5231330691Forecast
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-28
199842737U5235634792Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-29
201238249U9731330491Forecast
IRIDIUM 19 [+]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-30
199724965U8668322394Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-2
201137820U4330227590Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-13
199842067U5234533891Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-13
199841576U5231931291Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-14
201742748U2226215130453Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-22
200428476U391513190102Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-23
199841573U5232331891Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-27
201339436U9841540693Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-5
199841569U5232432191Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-6
199842703U5236235692Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-7
199841479U5232632391Forecast
TECHEDSAT 6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-7
199843026U5239739292Forecast
FLOCK 2E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-15
199841574U5232531991Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-19
199841761U5236935992Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-21
199841480U5233032691Forecast
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-29
199841565U5232832291Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-16
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-30
199841763U5236535792Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-30
199841577U5232832391Forecast
FLOCK 2E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-13
199841572U5233032591Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-17
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-27
199841776U5237036492Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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