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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Tue 20-Nov-2018 22:36 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-28
201742985U22250771111Reentered!
Lat=-20.6   Lon=65
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-4
201843244U9714013087Reentered!
Lat=23.1   Lon=187.4
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-4
201843586U9713611987Reentered!
Lat=-62.7   Lon=114.4
ATLAS 2A CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-5
200227567U2730212689Reentered!
Lat=-24.2   Lon=143
IRIDIUM 62 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-7
199825285U8619211588Reentered!
Lat=-27.7   Lon=229
EXALTA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-14
199842734U5215315088Reentered!
Lat=-4.1   Lon=294.5
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-19
201843703U5215914788Reentered!
Lat=30.1   Lon=41.5
I-INSPIRE II
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-24
199842731U5223122289Forecast
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-29
201843705U5225420489Forecast
UNSW-ECO
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-2
199842723U5226525590Forecast
LEMUR-2-REDFERN-GOES
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-5
199842059U5226325490Forecast
HOOPOE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-18
199842718U5229128290Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-19
201843691U8547021191Forecast
ITF-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-29
199841932U5229128390Forecast
IRIDIUM 90 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-12
200227373U8643723091Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-13
201641883U282778143115Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-14
201843129U9728627290Forecast
POLYITAN-2-SAU
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-23
199842732U5231730991Forecast
X-CUBESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-24
199842707U5231530891Forecast
2018-083F
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-1
201843667U9846221191Forecast
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-7
199724715U78212134180Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-8
201843166U8338426891Forecast
QBEE50-LTU-OC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-10
199842708U5232331891Forecast
HAVELSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-11
199842700U5232331591Forecast
CXBN-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-12
199842704U5232431891Forecast
SPACECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-13
199842717U5232431791Forecast
OSIRIS-3U
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-15
199843027U5234333691Forecast
SNUSAT-1B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-25
199842733U5233032191Forecast
SNUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-15
199842727U5233632691Forecast
DEBRISSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-15
199843621U5238737492Forecast
H-1 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-31
198920230U281940174106Forecast
BEEAGLESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-2
199842736U5234133291Forecast
IRIDIUM 46 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-5
199724905U8653525692Forecast
SHARC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-8
199842712U5235234792Forecast
CSUNSAT 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-8
199842715U5234233591Forecast
LILACSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-10
199842725U5233532791Forecast
TOKI
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-11
199842820U5234333791Forecast
SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-21
201742903U4333731591Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-24
201843532U9851622892Forecast
PHOENIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-28
199842706U5234033691Forecast
MAZAALAI (NUMSAT-1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-30
199842822U5234533991Forecast
BRAC ONNESHA
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-1
199842823U5234533791Forecast
ZA-AEROSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-4
199842713U5234534091Forecast
NIGERIAEDUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-8
199842824U5234633891Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-25
201743033U6759422693Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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