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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Thu 26-Apr-2018 22:09 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-28
199842737U5216816088Reentered!
Lat=-26.3   Lon=96.1
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-3
201238249U9715213687Reentered!
Lat=0.6   Lon=336.2
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-6
199841569U5218317088Reentered!
Lat=14.5   Lon=293.8
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-6
199841565U5217716488Reentered!
Lat=-47   Lon=269.1
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-15
199842067U5217616488Reentered!
Lat=-23.4   Lon=8.8
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-15
199841479U5218216888Reentered!
Lat=32.2   Lon=203.8
IRIDIUM 94 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-18
200227374U861704987Reentered!
Lat=42.7   Lon=190.9
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-18
199841480U5215914688Reentered!
Lat=24   Lon=4.6
IRIDIUM 13 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-29
199724840U8633615489Forecast
CUBESAT XI-V (CO-58)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-3
200528895U9867464998Forecast
SL-6 R/B(2)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-5
200227616U62690787163Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-5
199842703U5227225590Forecast
KKS-1 (KISEKI)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-9
200933499U9863962597Forecast
FORMOSAT-3 FM5
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-9
200629049U72806754100Forecast
IRIDIUM 25 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-10
199724904U8663217593Forecast
FORMOSAT-3 FM2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-13
200629052U72812752100Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-19
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-14
199841777U5229027590Forecast
TECHEDSAT 6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-16
199843026U5232030691Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-20
201339436U9833432491Forecast
IRIDIUM 37 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-22
199724968U8647620991Forecast
SL-3 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-23
197710114U9751549695Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-29
200428476U3968917693Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-16
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-1
199841763U5230929891Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-4
199841761U5231229991Forecast
FORMOSAT-3 FM6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-9
200629047U72828754101Forecast
SS-520-5 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-13
201843202U31124618099Forecast
FLOCK 2E-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-14
199841483U5230830291Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-11
199841567U5232631991Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-17
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-13
199841776U5232732091Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-2
201742796U9530328190Forecast
IRIDIUM 40 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-5
199725041U8647126492Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-17
201742762U4339424791Forecast
CHALLENGER
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-08-27
199842721U5233933291Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-6
201641395U9835027591Forecast
FLOCK 2E-5
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-15
199841564U5232832291Forecast
LINK
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-22
199842714U5234934491Forecast
LEMUR-2-AUSTINTACIOUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-09-26
199842068U5234333691Forecast
ICECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-4
199842705U5234934591Forecast
WASEDA-SAT3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-7
199841933U5233933491Forecast
AOBA-VELOX 3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-28
199841935U5234433991Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNAHD
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-31
199842069U5235034391Forecast
ATLAS 2A CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-1
200227567U274618159136Forecast
IRIDIUM 90 [B]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-3
200227373U8669825094Forecast
I-INSPIRE II
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-10
199842731U5236035292Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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