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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Tue 23-Oct-2018 7:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
IRIDIUM 20 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-22
199825577U8716210487Reentered!
Lat=-19.3   Lon=178.1
IRIDIUM 11 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-22
199825578U8622612188Reentered!
Lat=10.6   Lon=18.1
FLOCK 2E'-14
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-25
199841762U5223622289Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-10-27
201742985U2212333125235Forecast
AOBA-VELOX 3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-1
199841935U5225123889Forecast
ATLAS 2A CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-1
200227567U27120914798Forecast
IRIDIUM 83 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-2
199825531U8663816493Forecast
IRIDIUM 84 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-2
199825530U8646817991Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-3
201843586U9729519789Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-3
201843244U9722922589Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-18
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-7
199841769U5228727490Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-15
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-11
199841764U5228727590Forecast
EXALTA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-15
199842734U5228627490Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNAHD
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-15
199842069U5227826890Forecast
I-INSPIRE II
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-28
199842731U5229728790Forecast
LEMUR-2-REDFERN-GOES
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-3
199842059U5229728890Forecast
UNSW-ECO
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-5
199842723U5230329490Forecast
IRIDIUM 52 [P]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-14
199825169U8670320794Forecast
HOOPOE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-18
199842718U5231230691Forecast
ITF-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-25
199841932U5230930191Forecast
IRIDIUM 90 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-29
200227373U8649723892Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-11
201641883U283660145125Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-15
201843129U9730328390Forecast
POLYITAN-2-SAU
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-26
199842732U5232932191Forecast
X-CUBESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-26
199842707U5232632291Forecast
HAVELSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-5
199842700U5233232691Forecast
CXBN-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-7
199842704U5233332891Forecast
OSIRIS-3U
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-12
199843027U5235234792Forecast
SPACECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-19
199842717U5233332891Forecast
QBEE50-LTU-OC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-22
199842708U5233232991Forecast
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-23
199724715U710087134204Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-25
201843532U9854623192Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-6
201843166U8340127591Forecast
SNUSAT-1B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-7
199842733U5233833191Forecast
SNUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-12
199842727U5234333591Forecast
H-1 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-12
198920230U282163175109Forecast
IRIDIUM 46 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-25
199724905U8656225693Forecast
BEEAGLESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-7
199842736U5234633991Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-12
201743033U6762422593Forecast
LILACSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-13
199842725U5234133691Forecast
SHARC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-16
199842712U5235835492Forecast
CSUNSAT 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-22
199842715U5234734291Forecast
TOKI
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-22
199842820U5234834491Forecast
MAZAALAI (NUMSAT-1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-23
199842822U5235034591Forecast
PHOENIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-24
199842706U5234534291Forecast
SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-2
201742903U4334232491Forecast
NIGERIAEDUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-4
199842824U5235134591Forecast
ZA-AEROSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-5
199842713U5235034692Forecast
BRAC ONNESHA
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-6
199842823U5235034491Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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