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The space junk DIWATA-1 is forecast to reentry Saturday, 02 May 2020 at 23:26 UTC +/- 8 hours
DIWATA-1

Forecast for DIWATA-1 Reentry


Update Wed 29-Jan-2020 14:09 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk DIWATA-1 (41463U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Saturday, 02 May 2020 at 23:26 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-18
202045025U8644211690Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-21
201741912U2725411288Reentered!
Lat=18.3   Lon=288.1
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-23
200832477U4117616788Reentered!
Lat=2.5   Lon=259.2
STARLINK-1025
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-6
201944730U5335434692Forecast
STARLINK-1049
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-6
201944754U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1009
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-6
201944715U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1021
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-6
201944726U5335334892Forecast
STARLINK-1023
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-6
201944728U5335534692Forecast
STARLINK-1048
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-6
201944753U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1016
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-6
201944722U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1017
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-7
201944723U5335434792Forecast
STARLINK-1007
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-7
201944713U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1008
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-7
201944714U5335334792Forecast
STARLINK-1019
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-7
201944724U5335434692Forecast
STARLINK-1010
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-7
201944716U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1013
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-7
201944719U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-41
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-7
201944277U5347647494Forecast
STARLINK-1015
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
201944721U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1012
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
201944718U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-75
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
201944286U5347847694Forecast
STARLINK-34
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-8
201944248U5351150995Forecast
STARLINK-22
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-9
201944236U5347547294Forecast
STARLINK-42
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-9
201944256U5346646494Forecast
STARLINK-37
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-9
201944251U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-35
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-10
201944264U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1064
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-10
201944769U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-40
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-10
201944258U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-50
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-10
201944285U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-72
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-10
201944263U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-44
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-11
201944261U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-25
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-11
201944239U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-36
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-11
201944250U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-66
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-11
201944255U5345144994Forecast
STARLINK-74
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-11
201944293U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-63
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-11
201944265U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-79
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-11
201944288U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-70
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-12
201944281U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-45
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-12
201944260U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-77
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-12
201944291U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-59
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-12
201944271U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-68
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-12
201944279U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-81
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-12
201944292U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-62
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-12
201944274U5351351195Forecast
STARLINK-23
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-12
201944237U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1045
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-12
201944750U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-51
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-12
201944272U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1062
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
201944767U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-30
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
201944244U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1039
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
201944744U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-21
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
201944245U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-73
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
201944284U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-78
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
201944290U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-32
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
201944254U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-76
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-13
201944287U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-71
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-14
201944252U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-57
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-14
201944269U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-65
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-14
201944276U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1046
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-14
201944751U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-38
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-14
201944280U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-61
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-14
201944249U5351650795Forecast
STARLINK-26
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-14
201944240U5343843693Forecast
STARLINK-1041
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-14
201944746U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1065
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-15
201944770U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-56
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-15
201944283U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-69
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-15
201944267U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1063
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-15
201944768U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-58
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-15
201944270U5351351195Forecast
STARLINK-1038
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-15
201944743U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-53
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-16
201944294U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1043
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-16
201944748U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-64
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-16
201944275U5348147994Forecast
STARLINK-28
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-17
201944242U5345144994Forecast
STARLINK-31
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-18
201944235U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-46
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-18
201944246U5331422590Forecast
STARLINK-1061
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-19
201944766U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-39
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-19
201944253U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1058
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-21
201944763U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-27
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-22
201944241U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-49
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-22
201944262U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1067
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-23
201944771U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-48
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-27
201944289U5350950695Forecast
STARLINK-43
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
201944257U5347847694Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-6
201944837U9750918091Forecast
STARLINK-1028
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-15
201944733U5335134892Forecast
BATSU-CS1 (IRAZU)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-20
199843468U5229729290Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-22
198920362U3629327590Forecast
STARLINK-1051
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-22
201944756U5335134892Forecast
STARLINK-1117
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-24
202044952U5335235092Forecast
STARLINK-1026
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-28
201944731U5335334792Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-28
202044977U5327126390Forecast
STARLINK-29
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
201944243U5344643993Forecast
STARLINK-55
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-9
201944268U5345044994Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-9
201944372U4533426491Forecast
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-17
201641902U9832723790Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-23
201944707U9840021991Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-26
202044976U5327226690Forecast
STARLINK-67
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-30
201944278U5331828991Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-1
201742800U9835024891Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-1
199843550U5232231991Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-2
199841463U5228127990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-3
202044975U5327826790Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-10
202044974U5327726890Forecast
TECHEDSAT 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-21
199844032U5234434191Forecast
NSIGHT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-30
199842726U5231531291Forecast
STARLINK-1040
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-21
201944745U5334133591Forecast
ASTERIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-28
199843020U5231631491Forecast
IRIDIUM 96 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-9
200227376U8643926292Forecast
DEBRISSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-10
199843680U5234334191Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-19
201843230U2712205135233Forecast
SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-19
201238105U475252141143Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-28
201843658U6757722393Forecast
STARLINK-1083
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-29
202044939U5335134992Forecast
CZ-4C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-30
201944210U9841326191Forecast
1KUNS-PF
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-30
199843466U5233733591Forecast
STARLINK-1116
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-10
202044947U5335134992Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-15
201944799U9834728491Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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