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The space junk FLOCK 2E'-17 is forecast to reentry Saturday, 07 Jul 2018 at 23:17 UTC +/- 8 hours
FLOCK 2E

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Thu 18-Jan-2018 14:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk FLOCK 2E'-17 (41776U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Saturday, 07 Jul 2018 at 23:17 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
DRAGON CRS-13 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-20
201743061U5221917388Reentered!
Forecast
DRAGON CRS-13 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-20
201743062U5223117489Reentered!
Lat=-51.1   Lon=210.8
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-20
201743064U5214713987Reentered!
Lat=51.7   Lon=299.4
IRIDIUM 6 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-23
199724794U8617012087Reentered!
Lat=83.7   Lon=157.3
GRACE-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-24
200227392U8913413187Reentered!
Lat=63.9   Lon=199.1
FLOCK 2E-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-25
199841571U5218717488Reentered!
Lat=-19.5   Lon=321.9
IRIDIUM 34 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-8
199724969U8617512688Reentered!
Lat=-1.3   Lon=70
OSNSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-11
199841939U5215715588Reentered!
Lat=-11   Lon=133.6
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-16
201743093U5134814189Reentered!
Forecast
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-17
201743094U5134714789Reentered!
Forecast
FLOCK 2E-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-25
199841484U5225124189Forecast
SL-23 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-28
201743090U5138815890Forecast
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-30
201743091U5158317092Forecast
SL-23 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-31
201743092U5159517292Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-1
201742748U2112914113243Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-5
200629053U7224924089Forecast
ISS DEB (ROSA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-10
199842813U5230029090Forecast
FLOCK 2E-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-17
199841563U5229328790Forecast
IRIDIUM 43 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-19
199725039U8634622590Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-23
201540881U202559137113Forecast
FLOCK 2E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-2
199841572U5231130891Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-9
199841576U5229729690Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-12
199841895U5230930291Forecast
FLOCK 2E-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-13
199841487U5231630991Forecast
COLUMBIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-13
199842702U5232631791Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-16
199841578U5228928690Forecast
GRACE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-19
200227391U8928227390Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-21
199841313U5228328190Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-26
199841575U5229529290Forecast
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-17
199842737U5234133191Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-22
201137820U4328826390Forecast
IRIDIUM 19 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-23
199724965U8661122193Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-25
201238249U9730029190Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-12
199842067U5233432691Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-24
199841573U5231031091Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-28
199841479U5231631391Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-29
199842703U5235034692Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-3
199841569U5231431291Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-8
200428476U391348188100Forecast
TECHEDSAT 6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-11
199843026U5238738192Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-11
199841577U5231731691Forecast
FLOCK 2E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-11
199841574U5231331291Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-14
201339436U9840439693Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-18
201741912U2716731131299Forecast
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-06-24
199841565U5231731691Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-16
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-7
199841763U5235634892Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-17
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-7
199841776U5236235492Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-13
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-15
199841761U5236035192Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-07-19
199841480U5232131891Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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