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The space junk SHENZHOU-11 MODULE is forecast to reentry Monday, 19 Oct 2020 at 16:45 UTC +/- 8 hours
SHENZHOU-11 MODULE

Forecast for SHENZHOU-11 MODULE Reentry


Update Fri 7-Aug-2020 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk SHENZHOU-11 MODULE (41868U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Monday, 19 Oct 2020 at 16:45 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-9
202045718U5315314087Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-10
202045717U5317615888Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-11
202045720U5317115388Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-18
201944799U9813111387Reentered!
Lat=26.8   Lon=258.8
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-19
202045798U5315713987Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-22
202045793U5316714588Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-25
202045791U5318015288Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-26
202045792U5316614288Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-27
202045938U5213813787Reentered!
Lat=-47.9   Lon=28.6
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-4
201843658U6714912687Reentered!
Lat=-53   Lon=257.4
1998-067PK
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-25
199843598U5227326190Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-7
201339482U242468133112Forecast
TANUSHA-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-7
199843597U5228727990Forecast
ARIANE 44L+ R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-21
199221941U41333167100Forecast
1998-067PC
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-5
199843554U5230329691Forecast
SMOG-P
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-8
201944832U9732229791Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-16
201541195U234336138133Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-16
201843230U275473132146Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-18
201944545U5511340102221Forecast
SHENZHOU-11 MODULE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-19
201641868U4327325590Forecast
ATL-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-27
201944830U9733130391Forecast
ENDUROSAT ONE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-2
199843551U5231430891Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-21
201843451U2730483114529Forecast
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-25
201944825U9734930891Forecast
BHUTAN-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-12
199843591U5233032591Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-13
201138015U247258139168Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-15
200833415U247050131165Forecast
UITMSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-16
199843589U5233032691Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-16
201944500U4538527891Forecast
MAYA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-23
199843590U5233032691Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-24
201843588U274708147137Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-29
200732261U401625181103Forecast
SIRIUSSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-01-14
199843596U5233933691Forecast
SIRIUSSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-01-18
199843595U5233833691Forecast
RAINCUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-02-3
199843548U5234233791Forecast
UBAKUSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-02-7
199843467U5233733591Forecast
HALOSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-02-21
199843549U5234434091Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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