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The space junk TANCREDO-1 is forecast to reentry Wednesday, 18 Oct 2017 at 02:27 UTC +/- 8 hours
TANCREDO-1

Forecast of Reentry Location


Update Sat 21-Oct-2017 18:10 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk TANCREDO-1 (41931U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Wednesday, 18 Oct 2017 at 02:27 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
NODES 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-23
199841478U5214914287Reentered!
Lat=42.5   Lon=209.8
IRIDIUM 30 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-09-28
199724949U8616613387Reentered!
Lat=-14.3   Lon=257.2
FLOCK 2E'-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-3
199841570U5220819389Reentered!
Lat=-19.6   Lon=266.1
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-10
201742696U201737106103Reentered!
Lat=4.9   Lon=171.9
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-16
201742972U5212211987Reentered!
Lat=26.3   Lon=51.6
TANCREDO-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-18
199841931U5216415688Reentered!
Lat=-28.6   Lon=27.9
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-19
199842434U5221019589Reentered!
Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-10-26
199842697U5227626290Forecast
FIREFLY
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-2
201339404U4026725190Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-9
199841482U5230529591Forecast
CZ-4B DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-11-14
200833411U9731130691Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2017-12-8
199841481U5232932291Forecast
OSNSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-6
199841939U5234233891Forecast
GRACE-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-9
200227392U8931130391Forecast
ISS DEB (ROSA)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-15
199842813U5237437392Forecast
MINOTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-27
200629053U7231430591Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-01-28
201540881U204990140140Forecast
STARS-C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-6
199841895U5235435392Forecast
FLOCK 2E-6
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-9
199841563U5235234992Forecast
COLUMBIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-11
199842702U5237036792Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-17
199841578U5233532791Forecast
YAOGAN-30 C
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-20
201742947U3560559597Forecast
AGGIESAT 4
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-21
199841313U5232531991Forecast
ATLANTIS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-24
199842737U5237637192Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-02-26
201238249U9733432091Forecast
IRIDIUM 43 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-1
199725039U8653524892Forecast
FLOCK 2E-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-3
199841571U5233633291Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-3
199841575U5233532891Forecast
LEMUR-2-TRUTNA
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-13
199842067U5236235792Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-17
199841576U5233833191Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-8
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-21
199841569U5234033691Forecast
EAGLE 2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-26
201339436U9843542593Forecast
SGSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-27
199842703U5237637692Forecast
TIANGONG 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-27
201137820U4332029391Forecast
FLOCK 2E-12
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-28
199841573U5234033491Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-03-31
199841479U5234133991Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-5
200428476U391788193105Forecast
FLOCK 2E-10
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-7
199841572U5234533991Forecast
FLOCK 2E-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-8
199841574U5234133491Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-11
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-9
199841577U5234433791Forecast
FLOCK 2E-7
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-11
199841565U5234233791Forecast
FLOCK 2E'-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-04-28
199841480U5234334291Forecast
FLOCK 2E-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-05-5
199841484U5234233891Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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