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The space junk HOOPOE is forecast to reentry Monday, 24 Dec 2018 at 09:47 UTC +/- 8 hours
HOOPOE

Forecast for HOOPOE Reentry


Update Thu 13-Dec-2018 14:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk HOOPOE (42718U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Monday, 24 Dec 2018 at 09:47 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-19
201843703U5215914788Reentered!
Lat=30.1   Lon=41.5
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-11-28
201843705U5215814588Reentered!
Lat=49.3   Lon=42.9
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-7
201843757U5214513787Reentered!
Lat=-10.4   Lon=187.8
DRAGON CRS-16 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-11
201843828U5218416388Reentered!
Lat=-25.8   Lon=222.1
IRIDIUM 31 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-19
199724950U8653914991Forecast
IRIDIUM 35 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-20
199724966U8666115493Forecast
HOOPOE
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-24
199842718U5225324589Forecast
1998-067PS
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-30
199843847U5240539793Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2018-12-30
201843691U8535420090Forecast
ITF-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-5
199841932U5226726190Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-21
201843129U9726725890Forecast
IRIDIUM 90 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-01-29
200227373U8639022691Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-4
201641883U282311141110Forecast
X-CUBESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-8
199842707U5230129791Forecast
POLYITAN-2-SAU
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-9
199842732U5230329891Forecast
ARIANE 44L R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-16
199724715U76731134161Forecast
DEBRISSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-22
199843621U5237736292Forecast
QBEE50-LTU-OC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-02-26
199842708U5231330991Forecast
HAVELSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-1
199842700U5231330791Forecast
SPACECUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-7
199842717U5231430991Forecast
CXBN-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-8
199842704U5231430991Forecast
SNUSAT-1B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-18
199842733U5232131491Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-19
201843166U8336626291Forecast
OSIRIS-3U
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-19
199843027U5233332891Forecast
LILACSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-03-23
199842725U5232732091Forecast
H-1 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-2
198920230U281764173104Forecast
SILU-1 (SILKROAD 1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-11
201742903U4333031091Forecast
SNUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-04-14
199842727U5232832191Forecast
BEEAGLESAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-18
199842736U5233432791Forecast
TOKI
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-20
199842820U5233733291Forecast
CSUNSAT 1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-24
199842715U5233633191Forecast
BRAC ONNESHA
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-26
199842823U5233933291Forecast
MAZAALAI (NUMSAT-1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-28
199842822U5233933491Forecast
NIGERIAEDUSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-05-31
199842824U5234133391Forecast
SHARC
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-06-6
199842712U5234634291Forecast
PHOENIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-06-11
199842706U5233533291Forecast
ZA-AEROSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-06-16
199842713U5234033691Forecast
IRIDIUM 46 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-06-18
199724905U8651325692Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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