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The space junk FALCON 9 R/B is forecast to reentry Tuesday, 21 Jul 2020 at 00:13 UTC +/- 8 hours
FALCON 9 R/B

Forecast for FALCON 9 R/B Reentry


Update Sat 22-Feb-2020 11:09 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk FALCON 9 R/B (43230U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Tuesday, 21 Jul 2020 at 00:13 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
STARLINK-46
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-20
201944246U5318314888Reentered!
Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-22
202045112U7019914488Forecast
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-23
202045177U5219516988Forecast
1998-067RD
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-24
199845260U5242341093Forecast
STARLINK-1136
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-28
202045089U5334434291Forecast
STARLINK-1190
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-29
202045083U5341641493Forecast
STARLINK-1155
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-1
202045053U5341441293Forecast
STARLINK-1169
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-1
202045061U5341541393Forecast
2020-014A
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-2
202045249U3548347294Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-3
202045242U5334918990Forecast
STARLINK-1178
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-4
202045063U5341541393Forecast
BATSU-CS1 (IRAZU)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-4
199843468U5226425490Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
202044976U5324323689Forecast
STARLINK-1162
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
202045058U5341341093Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-6
201944837U9738717190Forecast
STARLINK-22
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
201944236U5342641793Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-7
202044977U5323623189Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-8
198920362U3626125590Forecast
STARLINK-1131
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-8
202045047U5341641493Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-9
202044974U5325124189Forecast
STARLINK-1120
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-9
202045045U5341541393Forecast
STARLINK-1142
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-9
202045093U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1134
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-10
202045048U5342242093Forecast
STARLINK-1069
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-11
202044955U5335134992Forecast
1998-067RC
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-12
199845259U5242940193Forecast
STARLINK-1186
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-12
202045099U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1172
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-13
202045074U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-67
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-13
201944278U5331028590Forecast
STARLINK-1171
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-14
202045062U5341441193Forecast
STARLINK-1074
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-14
202044957U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1094
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-15
202044941U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1126
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-15
202044951U5335134992Forecast
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-15
201641902U9829522690Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-15
201944372U4530224490Forecast
STARLINK-1122
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-16
202044949U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1152
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-16
202045096U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1092
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-16
202044969U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1007
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-17
201944713U5339038292Forecast
STARLINK-62
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-17
201944274U5345144994Forecast
STARLINK-1086
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-17
202044964U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-52
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-18
201944259U5342442293Forecast
STARLINK-1089
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-19
202044967U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1185
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-19
202045087U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1080
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-19
202044961U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1125
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-19
202044950U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1146
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-20
202045094U5335234892Forecast
STARLINK-1151
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-20
202045081U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-41
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-20
201944277U5342641793Forecast
STARLINK-1193
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-21
202045100U5335134992Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-21
202045107U5327425590Forecast
STARLINK-1133
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-22
202045064U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1148
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-23
202045052U5342442293Forecast
STARLINK-29
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-23
201944243U5342641693Forecast
STARLINK-1168
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-24
202045072U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1109
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-24
202044945U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1180
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-25
202045076U5335234892Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-25
202045106U5327525990Forecast
STARLINK-1139
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-25
202045065U5335134992Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-25
202045104U5328026190Forecast
STARLINK-1183
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-26
202045088U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1070
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-27
202044956U5335234992Forecast
STARLINK-1195
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-27
202045102U5335134992Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-28
202045105U5328126190Forecast
STARLINK-1053
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-28
201944758U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1182
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-29
202045077U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1050
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-29
201944755U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1060
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-29
201944765U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1149
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-31
202045079U5334033891Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-31
199843550U5231030291Forecast
STARLINK-1161
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-4
202045068U5335134992Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-6
201944707U9836021690Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-7
199841463U5226926590Forecast
STARLINK-1111
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
202044924U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1073
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-8
202044914U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-76
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-10
201944287U5353152895Forecast
STARLINK-1196
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-11
202045103U5335134992Forecast
ASTERIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-15
199843020U5230830491Forecast
TECHEDSAT 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-16
199844032U5233432791Forecast
STARLINK-1103
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-16
202044921U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1164
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-18
202045070U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1097
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-18
202044916U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1144
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-19
202044933U5355154996Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-19
201742800U9832824190Forecast
STARLINK-1163
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-19
202045069U5334534491Forecast
NSIGHT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-19
199842726U5230730091Forecast
STARLINK-1174
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-20
202045075U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1150
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-20
202045067U5334534491Forecast
STARLINK-1046
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-20
201944751U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1177
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-20
202045078U5334434391Forecast
STARLINK-1132
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-22
202045044U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK-1153
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-22
202045080U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1166
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-23
202045060U5341441293Forecast
STARLINK-1045
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-25
201944750U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1129
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-27
202045046U5342142093Forecast
STARLINK-1124
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-27
202044953U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1043
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-28
201944748U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1106
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-29
202044923U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1123
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-3
202044930U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-1079
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-4
202044937U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-75
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-10
201944286U5342941993Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-11
201843658U6754121992Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-12
202044975U5325024289Forecast
STARLINK-1173
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-13
202045084U5334534491Forecast
STARLINK-1170
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-13
202045073U5330729491Forecast
DEBRISSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-16
199843680U5233633291Forecast
STARLINK-1135
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-29
202045049U5342242093Forecast
CZ-4C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-31
201944210U9739526091Forecast
SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-1
201238105U474689139137Forecast
STARLINK-1098
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-3
202044917U5355154896Forecast
1KUNS-PF
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-4
199843466U5233032691Forecast
STARLINK-1176
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-7
202045090U5332332291Forecast
STARLINK-1040
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-7
201944745U5333632991Forecast
STARLINK-1141
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-15
202045051U5342242193Forecast
STARLINK-1056
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-17
201944761U5355154996Forecast
IRIDIUM 96 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-21
200227376U8642026291Forecast
STARLINK-71
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-24
201944252U5353152895Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-1
201944799U9833927991Forecast
STARLINK-54
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-2
201944266U5353152895Forecast
1998-067PK
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-4
199843598U5235034591Forecast
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-21
201843230U2711015135217Forecast
1998-067PC
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-25
199843554U5235334692Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-27
201944710U2831225123543Forecast
STARLINK-1167
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-29
202045071U5334434191Forecast
STARLINK-1107
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-1
202044972U5335534592Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-2
201339482U247795140175Forecast
TANUSHA-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-4
199843597U5235334692Forecast
STARLINK-26
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-9
201944240U5343843593Forecast
STARLINK-1055
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-11
201944760U5355154896Forecast
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-12
201944825U9739833492Forecast
ARIANE 44L+ R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-15
199221941U42816174116Forecast
ENDUROSAT ONE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-19
199843551U5235634992Forecast
STARLINK-1140
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-21
202045050U5342342193Forecast
STARLINK-1112
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-22
202044925U5355154896Forecast
STARLINK-1181
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-24
202045086U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1121
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-31
202044929U5355054996Forecast
STARLINK-33
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-1
201944247U5340640493Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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