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The space junk TECHEDSAT 8 is forecast to reentry Sunday, 29 Mar 2020 at 20:34 UTC +/- 8 hours
TECHEDSAT 8

Forecast for TECHEDSAT 8 Reentry


Update Wed 13-Nov-2019 7:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk TECHEDSAT 8 (44032U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Sunday, 29 Mar 2020 at 20:34 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-10-16
201944442U216388492Reentered!
Lat=-18.8   Lon=89.4
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-10-22
201944338U29159070102Reentered!
Lat=-26   Lon=201.8
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-10-28
201843709U5554510991Reentered!
Lat=-38.7   Lon=303.6
HTV-8 (KOUNOTORI 8)
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-3
201944546U5239914590Reentered!
Forecast
OBJECT B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-7
201944702U5216014588Reentered!
Lat=26.6   Lon=163.8
ATLAS 5 CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-18
201741938U231593124102Forecast
2019-072F
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-23
201944708U9848443594Forecast
CZ-3C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-24
201036591U213166124119Forecast
ALTAIR PATHFINDER
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-3
199842711U5227126590Forecast
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-6
201843242U206679112160Forecast
ELECTRON DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-18
201944639U881175310100Forecast
2019-072D
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-25
201944706U9750548695Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-9
201741912U272919144117Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-13
200832477U4129129090Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-6
201944372U4539228391Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-24
198920362U3633230291Forecast
BATSU-CS1 (IRAZU)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-24
199843468U5233533091Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-26
201742800U9839725791Forecast
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
201641902U9838424991Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-5
199843550U5234934291Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-14
201944707U9848222892Forecast
ASTERIA
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-20
199843020U5233733491Forecast
2019-072B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-21
201944704U9750648495Forecast
IRIDIUM 96 [-]
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-24
200227376U8648827092Forecast
NSIGHT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-27
199842726U5233833191Forecast
TECHEDSAT 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-29
199844032U5236936292Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-10
199841463U5230530291Forecast
DEBRISSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-30
199843680U5236235692Forecast
CZ-4C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-8
201944210U9844526892Forecast
1KUNS-PF
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-9
199843466U5235335092Forecast
STARLINK-67
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-23
201944278U5333130191Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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