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The space junk ELECTRON R/B is forecast to reentry Saturday, 04 Apr 2020 at 18:15 UTC +/- 8 hours
ELECTRON R/B

Forecast for ELECTRON R/B Reentry


Update Wed 4-Dec-2019 18:11 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk ELECTRON R/B (44372U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Saturday, 04 Apr 2020 at 18:15 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-7
201944702U5216014588Reentered!
Lat=26.6   Lon=163.8
ATLAS 5 CENTAUR R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-19
201741938U2234510789Reentered!
Lat=7.9   Lon=150.8
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-20
201944778U9719411688Reentered!
Lat=-12.6   Lon=97.8
CZ-3C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-11-27
201036591U2149310590Reentered!
Lat=-19.1   Lon=188.8
CZ-3A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-4
201843540U553337589Reentered!
Lat=-53.3   Lon=52.4
GSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-4
201843242U20101910496Reentered!
Lat=19.4   Lon=236.2
ALTAIR PATHFINDER
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-8
199842711U5222021089Forecast
STARLINK-1017
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-8
201944723U5335435292Forecast
STARLINK-1040
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-8
201944745U5335535392Forecast
STARLINK-1044
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-9
201944749U5334634491Forecast
STARLINK-26
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-10
201944240U5346946694Forecast
STARLINK-57
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-10
201944269U5354153895Forecast
STARLINK-55
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-19
201944268U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-22
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-22
201944236U5355154996Forecast
STARLINK-75
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-22
201944286U5354454296Forecast
STARLINK-64
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-22
201944275U5355554596Forecast
STARLINK-45
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-22
201944260U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-41
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-23
201944277U5355055096Forecast
STARLINK-43
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-23
201944257U5347947894Forecast
STARLINK-29
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-24
201944243U5344843993Forecast
STARLINK-61
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-25
201944249U5353252795Forecast
STARLINK-48
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-25
201944289U5350850795Forecast
STARLINK-37
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-26
201944251U5354354295Forecast
STARLINK-40
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-27
201944258U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-42
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-27
201944256U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-23
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-28
201944237U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-32
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-28
201944254U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-76
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-28
201944287U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-73
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-29
201944284U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-31
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-29
201944235U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-21
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-29
201944245U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1061
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-30
201944766U5340940793Forecast
STARLINK-63
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-30
201944265U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1058
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-30
201944763U5340940793Forecast
STARLINK-81
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-31
201944292U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-44
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-31
201944261U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1067
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-31
201944771U5340940793Forecast
STARLINK-39
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-31
201944253U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-36
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-31
201944250U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-33
Reentry: (YMD) 2019-12-31
201944247U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-74
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-1
201944293U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-35
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-1
201944264U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1043
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-1
201944748U5340940893Forecast
STARLINK-1053
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-1
201944758U5340840693Forecast
STARLINK-78
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-1
201944290U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-30
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-2
201944244U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1062
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-2
201944767U5340840693Forecast
STARLINK-71
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-2
201944252U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-51
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-2
201944272U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1065
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-2
201944770U5341040893Forecast
STARLINK-46
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-3
201944246U5332431691Forecast
STARLINK-49
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-3
201944262U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-58
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-3
201944270U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-27
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-3
201944241U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-54
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-4
201944266U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1054
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-4
201944759U5340840693Forecast
STARLINK-1064
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-5
201944769U5341040993Forecast
STARLINK-24
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-5
201944238U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-79
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-6
201944288U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-50
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-6
201944285U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1056
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-7
201944761U5340740593Forecast
STARLINK-62
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-7
201944274U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1055
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-7
201944760U5340640493Forecast
STARLINK-25
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-7
201944239U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1050
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-7
201944755U5340640493Forecast
STARLINK-1022
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-7
201944727U5340740593Forecast
STARLINK-56
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-8
201944283U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-38
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-8
201944280U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-77
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-8
201944291U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1063
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-8
201944768U5341040893Forecast
STARLINK-1042
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-8
201944747U5340740593Forecast
STARLINK-1038
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-8
201944743U5341140993Forecast
STARLINK-1041
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-9
201944746U5341140993Forecast
STARLINK-53
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-9
201944294U5353052995Forecast
STARLINK-34
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-9
201944248U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-65
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-10
201944276U5353052995Forecast
STARLINK-1046
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-10
201944751U5341141093Forecast
STARLINK-72
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-10
201944263U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-28
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-12
201944242U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-1039
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-12
201944744U5341241093Forecast
STARLINK-1045
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-15
201944750U5341241193Forecast
STARLINK-69
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-15
201944267U5353152995Forecast
STARLINK-66
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-17
201944255U5353052995Forecast
STARLINK-68
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-18
201944279U5353152995Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-20
201944776U5327325790Forecast
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-21
201741912U272335143110Forecast
STARLINK-70
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-25
201944281U5353152995Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-26
201944775U5327426190Forecast
STARLINK-1025
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-29
201944730U5335134992Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-30
200832477U4128127590Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-01-31
201944773U5328026390Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-1
201944774U5328026290Forecast
STARLINK-1033
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-23
201944738U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1060
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-24
201944765U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1031
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-02-27
201944736U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1047
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-24
201944752U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1035
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-03-30
201944740U5335134992Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-4
201944372U4537727991Forecast
STARLINK-1027
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-12
201944732U5335134992Forecast
DELTA 2 R/B(1)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-14
198920362U3632429791Forecast
BATSU-CS1 (IRAZU)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-16
199843468U5232732291Forecast
CZ-2D R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-16
201641902U9837024591Forecast
STARLINK-1007
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-04-29
201944713U5335134992Forecast
GAOFEN 12
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-2
201944819U9862962897Forecast
STARLINK-1029
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-4
201944734U5335134992Forecast
DIWATA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-16
199841463U5229829790Forecast
STARLINK-1012
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-17
201944718U5335134892Forecast
RADIX
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-25
199843550U5234333791Forecast
STARLINK-1048
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-05-30
201944753U5335134992Forecast
STARLINK-1013
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-1
201944719U5335134892Forecast
NSIGHT
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-5
199842726U5233232691Forecast
TECHEDSAT 8
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-9
199844032U5236235792Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-11
201742800U9838525491Forecast
STARLINK-67
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-14
201944278U5332630091Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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