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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Mon 6-Dec-2021 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-15
202149053U37º19415988Reentered!
Lat=-3.4   Lon=68.2
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-23
202149473U42º26815289Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-26
202149500U52º14914687Reentered!
Lat=35.2   Lon=47.6
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
202149472U42º19415388Reentered!
Lat=-42   Lon=158.3
AZTECHSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-9
199845261U52º24023089Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-10
202149128U96º20419588Forecast
STARLINK-2201
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-11
202147415U97º34234091Forecast
STARLINK-1097
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-13
202044916U53º29328890Forecast
SPACEBEE-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-14
201944370U45º29927990Forecast
STARLINK-2079
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-15
202147364U53º28728790Forecast
STARLINK-2316
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-16
202147984U53º34734591Forecast
STARLINK-2203
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-17
202147417U97º29729590Forecast
STARLINK-2199
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-17
202147413U97º29729590Forecast
STARLINK-2297
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-20
202148032U53º33332791Forecast
NARSSCUBE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-21
199844792U52º27826990Forecast
LEMUR-2-BAXTER-OLIVER
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-24
199846925U52º28127190Forecast
STARLINK-1674
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-24
202046555U53º28628190Forecast
STARLINK-1023
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-25
201944728U53º30230091Forecast
2020-063G
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-27
202046395U50º23823489Forecast
CHEFSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-6
201743044U52º31630791Forecast
1998-067RU
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-8
199846924U52º31530791Forecast
STARLINK-1204
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-9
202045203U53º30830791Forecast
LEMUR-2-DJARA
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-15
199846926U52º32031491Forecast
KRAKSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-21
199844427U52º31130691Forecast
STARLINK-2205
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-21
202147419U97º30530291Forecast
STARLINK-1943
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-25
202046795U53º30530191Forecast
STARLINK-2318
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-29
202148025U53º32231791Forecast
STARLINK-2200
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-13
202147414U97º30530291Forecast
QARMAN
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-21
199845263U52º34133191Forecast
STARLINK-1853
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-2
202047140U53º33231591Forecast
1998-067RC
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-5
199845259U52º34133291Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-30
202046090U53º33132291Forecast
STARLINK-1668
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-3
202046536U53º34933091Forecast
STARLINK-3157
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-19
202149413U53º34634391Forecast
STARLINK-3117
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-26
202149435U53º35134992Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-1
201843600U97º31630591Forecast
SL-3 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-6
198516111U97º32731691Forecast
STARLINK-3141
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-6
202149459U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3130
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-8
202149437U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3075
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-9
202149409U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3156
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-9
202149458U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3098
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-9
202149442U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3129
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-9
202149453U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3151
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-9
202149408U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3160
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-10
202149454U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3161
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-10
202149422U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3124
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-10
202149456U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3134
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-10
202149434U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3112
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-11
202149421U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3120
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-11
202149419U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3097
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-11
202149448U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3147
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-11
202149410U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3128
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-13
202149441U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3079
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-14
202149433U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3136
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-14
202149443U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3126
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-15
202149444U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3131
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-15
202149427U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3150
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-18
202149452U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-3108
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-21
202149439U53º35134992Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-28
202046087U53º34833691Forecast
STARLINK-1469
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-9
202045752U53º34033891Forecast
STARLINK-1367
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-14
202045539U53º34033891Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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