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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Mon 29-Nov-2021 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-2F R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-1
202149327U41º16013287Reentered!
Lat=-41.5   Lon=121.8
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-15
202149053U37º19415988Reentered!
Lat=-3.4   Lon=68.2
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-23
202149473U42º26815289Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-26
202149500U52º14914687Reentered!
Lat=35.2   Lon=47.6
STARLINK-2277
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-29
202148006U53º14413887Forecast
STARLINK-1875
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-29
202047160U53º17416688Forecast
STARLINK-2262
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-29
202148001U53º14914487Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-30
202149468U53º21817188Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-30
202149461U53º23217589Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
202149472U42º27018089Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
202149463U53º22617589Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
202149462U53º23317789Forecast
STARLINK-3123
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-1
202149429U53º22617488Forecast
STARLINK-2203
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-4
202147417U97º31931791Forecast
STARLINK-2206
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-4
202147420U97º31931791Forecast
STARLINK-2207
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-4
202147421U97º33233091Forecast
STARLINK-2199
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-5
202147413U97º31731491Forecast
STARLINK-2200
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-5
202147414U97º31731591Forecast
STARLINK-2205
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-5
202147419U97º32232091Forecast
STARLINK-2079
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-5
202147364U53º31131091Forecast
STARLINK-1757
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-5
202046339U53º29328890Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-11
202149128U96º23322489Forecast
AZTECHSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-11
199845261U52º27926890Forecast
STARLINK-2287
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-13
202148035U53º32431891Forecast
STARLINK-2259
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-13
202148007U53º32232091Forecast
STARLINK-2311
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-13
202147987U53º32232091Forecast
STARLINK-2302
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-13
202148024U53º32232091Forecast
STARLINK-2289
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-13
202147983U53º32232091Forecast
STARLINK-2261
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-13
202148004U53º32232091Forecast
STARLINK-2281
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-14
202148015U53º32431891Forecast
SPACEBEE-9
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-16
201944370U45º31529791Forecast
STARLINK-1097
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-16
202044916U53º30330091Forecast
LEMUR-2-BAXTER-OLIVER
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-20
199846925U52º29528790Forecast
NARSSCUBE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-23
199844792U52º29328390Forecast
2020-063G
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-27
202046395U50º24824389Forecast
CHEFSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-28
201743044U52º32531791Forecast
STARLINK-1023
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-29
201944728U53º30729991Forecast
LEMUR-2-DJARA
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-4
199846926U52º32632191Forecast
STARLINK-2297
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-6
202148032U53º34533691Forecast
1998-067RU
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-7
199846924U52º32431691Forecast
STARLINK-1943
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-20
202046795U53º31130891Forecast
STARLINK-1204
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-25
202045203U53º30129991Forecast
STARLINK-1367
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-26
202045539U53º34533991Forecast
KRAKSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-30
199844427U52º31831091Forecast
STARLINK-1674
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-13
202046555U53º30029991Forecast
1998-067RC
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-18
199845259U52º34633591Forecast
STARLINK-1853
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-2
202047140U53º33531991Forecast
QARMAN
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-2
199845263U52º34533591Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-8
202046090U53º33432691Forecast
STARLINK-1051
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-10
201944756U53º30129791Forecast
STARLINK-2318
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-12
202148025U53º32632291Forecast
STARLINK-2366
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-21
202147906U53º34133991Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-21
201843600U97º31730591Forecast
SL-3 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-3
198516111U97º32931891Forecast
STARLINK-1501
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-7
202045763U53º34033991Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-20
202046087U53º34933891Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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