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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Mon 24-Jan-2022 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-15
202147970U45º19016488Reentered!
Lat=-40.9   Lon=265.6
EPSILON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-20
202149405U98º16713187Reentered!
Lat=-61.4   Lon=1.7
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-21
202250855U53º16614688Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-21
202250853U53º14913087Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-22
202250852U53º16214588Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-2208
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-23
202147422U97º17916888Reentered!
Lat=2.1   Lon=69.6
STARLINK-2200
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-23
202147414U97º15214087Reentered!
Lat=42.2   Lon=355.1
STARLINK-2201
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-23
202147415U97º16315488Reentered!
Lat=53.4   Lon=154.9
STARLINK-2202
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-24
202147416U97º15314287Reentered!
Lat=-0.2   Lon=317
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-27
202149493U97º23416288Forecast
STARLINK-1853
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-28
202047140U53º28527890Forecast
STARLINK-1840
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-29
202047131U53º28927890Forecast
STARLINK-1945
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-30
202046775U53º28928790Forecast
STARLINK-1988
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-30
202147584U53º29028590Forecast
STARLINK-1786
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-30
202046688U53º29328390Forecast
STARLINK-1599
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-3
202046143U53º30830691Forecast
QARMAN
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-8
199845263U52º28127590Forecast
1998-067RC
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-11
199845259U52º28628090Forecast
ISARA
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-22
201743050U52º31931291Forecast
STARLINK-1831
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-23
202046728U53º34534091Forecast
STARLINK-1182
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-24
202045077U53º35234992Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-2
202046090U53º29929090Forecast
STARLINK-1668
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-10
202046536U53º32430291Forecast
QUETZAL-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-12
199845598U52º32231591Forecast
STARLINK-2313
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-27
202147986U53º33032491Forecast
DEMI
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-28
199845916U52º33433191Forecast
SL-3 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-11
198516111U97º30329991Forecast
STARLINK-1985
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-18
202147631U53º33233291Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-23
202046087U53º32931991Forecast
STARLINK-3303
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-26
202150162U53º33933791Forecast
STARLINK-3291
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-27
202150175U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3276
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-28
202150189U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3292
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-28
202150174U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3284
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-29
202150178U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3272
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-29
202150187U53º35134992Forecast
HARP
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-30
199845256U52º34634391Forecast
STARLINK-3260
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-3
202150205U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3287
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-3
202150172U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3257
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-9
202150203U53º35134992Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-10
202046086U53º33232191Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-14
202046085U53º33632791Forecast
STARLINK-1889
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-14
202047172U53º34334291Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-15
202046084U53º33832891Forecast
STARLINK-43
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-16
201944257U53º27426190Forecast
STARLINK-3258
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-17
202150206U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3301
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-17
202150169U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-1469
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-18
202045752U53º32531991Forecast
STARLINK-3305
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-18
202150166U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-1439
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-19
202045716U53º32832391Forecast
STARLINK-3307
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-20
202150164U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3282
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-21
202150177U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3281
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-21
202150183U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3270
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-21
202150199U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3261
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-21
202150193U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3259
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-22
202150192U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3266
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-22
202150195U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-3293
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-23
202150176U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2173
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-23
202148560U53º30029790Forecast
STARLINK-3269
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-23
202150194U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3265
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-27
202150180U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-3254
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-29
202150204U53º35134992Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-13
201843600U97º32030391Forecast
STARLINK-1229
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-28
202045231U53º34333391Forecast
STARLINK-1214
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-28
202045224U53º34033691Forecast
STARLINK-1218
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-8
202045209U53º34133691Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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