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The space junk ISS DEB is forecast to reentry Saturday, 03 Dec 2022 at 18:15 UTC +/- 8 hours
ISS DEB

Forecast for ISS DEB Reentry


Update Sat 3-Dec-2022 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk ISS DEB (48833U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Saturday, 03 Dec 2022 at 18:15 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-5B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-4
202254217U41º21515088Reentered!
Lat=-2.2   Lon=245.9
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-5
202253759U54º19713388Reentered!
Lat=35.9   Lon=7.3
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-9
202254233U52º17513488Reentered!
Lat=43.9   Lon=183.1
CZ-7 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-15
202254240U41º15214387Reentered!
Lat=-32.7   Lon=40.1
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-19
202253324U97º13111687Reentered!
Lat=-19.1   Lon=205.6
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-20
202254229U98º17312887Reentered!
Lat=40.3   Lon=295
CZ-7A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-22
202147852U20º32910789Reentered!
Lat=10.8   Lon=319.9
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-30
202252203U67º13610587Reentered!
Lat=-51.6   Lon=218.1
H-2A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-1
201540382U98º14313287Reentered!
Lat=75   Lon=128.3
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-3
199848833U52º18417588Forecast
INNOSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-8
201843738U97º25624590Forecast
2022-162B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-12
202254380U41º31819190Forecast
SPACEBEE-4
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-19
201843139U97º31831591Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-19
199852952U52º31229891Forecast
TIANWANG 1A (TW-1A)
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-3
201540928U97º30729891Forecast
LEMUR-2-ALEXANDER
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-11
201843559U52º34933791Forecast
ERBS
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-20
198415354U57º30329390Forecast
PSLV R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-21
201541172U15º34330591Forecast
LIGHT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-31
199851509U52º32831691Forecast
FALCONSAT-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-02-5
200730776U35º34733691Forecast
SURFSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-02-12
201843614U93º34633591Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-02-12
201440306U97º32330991Forecast
CZ-6 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-02-18
201540913U97º33429891Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-02-18
201843600U97º31930191Forecast
SL-3 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-03-20
198011822U81º33832691Forecast
SZ-13 MODULE
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-04-15
202152260U41º33631791Forecast
ICS-EF (ISS DEB)
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-05-27
199845265U52º34834091Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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