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The space junk VCC C is forecast to reentry Tuesday, 18 May 2021 at 10:22 UTC +/- 8 hours
VCC C

Forecast for VCC C Reentry


Update Sun 16-May-2021 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk VCC C (44430U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Tuesday, 18 May 2021 at 10:22 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
SL-8 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-04-23
199925723U48º13513187Reentered!
Lat=43.6   Lon=174.5
CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-3
201843209U55º30910489Reentered!
Lat=2.1   Lon=181.4
CZ-5B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-9
202148275U41º17313588Reentered!
Lat=22.2   Lon=50
VCC C
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-18
199844430U52º25424890Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-26
199844788U52º27526790Forecast
STARLINK-2323
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-29
202147868U53º35135092Forecast
STARLINK-64
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-29
201944275U53º30530491Forecast
STARLINK-2331
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-30
202147875U53º35135092Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-05-31
202148339U53º26424390Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-3
202148338U53º26524690Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-4
202148336U53º26825090Forecast
STARLINK-1841
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-5
202046729U53º31931291Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-6
202148337U53º26924890Forecast
DELLINGR (RBLE)
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-20
199843021U52º27126790Forecast
STARLINK-1516
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-22
202045749U53º28527690Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-27
199844789U52º31230391Forecast
STARLINK-1438
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-06-30
202045715U53º25524389Forecast
STARLINK-68
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-3
201944279U53º32932291Forecast
ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-7
201944074U40º32930791Forecast
STARS-ME
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-12
199843640U52º29729290Forecast
CZ-2F R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-21
202046390U50º28026790Forecast
CREW DRAGON DEMO-1 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-10
201944064U52º30930691Forecast
STARLINK-2362
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-10
202147902U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2397
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-11
202147917U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2357
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-11
202147897U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2364
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-12
202147904U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2346
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-12
202147887U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2345
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-13
202147886U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2405
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-13
202147919U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2358
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-13
202147898U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2374
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-13
202147913U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2370
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-14
202147910U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2333
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-14
202147877U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2375
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-14
202147914U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2372
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-15
202147912U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2376
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-15
202147915U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2321
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-17
202147867U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2351
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-18
202147891U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2369
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-18
202147909U53º35034992Forecast
STARLINK-2332
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-27
202147876U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2326
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-28
202147870U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2163
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-1
202147749U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2129
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-1
202147727U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2146
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-1
202147735U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2148
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-2
202147737U53º35134892Forecast
ENTRYSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-6
199844429U52º33632991Forecast
STARLINK-2291
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-7
202147862U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2156
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-8
202147742U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-1473
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-12
202045737U53º27426390Forecast
TEMPEST-D
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-15
199843547U52º29629190Forecast
STARLINK-2427
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-15
202147837U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2379
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-15
202147798U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2380
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-16
202147799U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2381
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-16
202147800U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2382
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-18
202147801U53º35134992Forecast
KESTREL EYE IIM (KE2M)
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-21
199842982U52º30029991Forecast
STARLINK-1992
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-19
202147632U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-2304
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-21
202147864U53º35134992Forecast
STARLINK-2083
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-26
202147676U53º35134892Forecast
1998-067PN
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-20
199843638U52º33232891Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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