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The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Sun 17-Oct-2021 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-29
202149130U70º14013287Reentered!
Lat=-70   Lon=120
CZ-7 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-4
202149223U41º17314188Reentered!
Lat=40.6   Lon=68.9
UGUISU
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-7
199844330U52º19117788Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-8
202149270U52º15514888Reentered!
Lat=34.3   Lon=199.8
AEROCUBE 8A
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-9
201540659U55º17817188Reentered!
Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-11
202149257U98º15313087Reentered!
Lat=10.4   Lon=337.1
VCC B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-13
199844431U52º20719388Reentered!
Forecast
SPOOQY-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-16
199844332U52º18217288Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-1078
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-17
202044936U53º19819288Reentered!
Lat=15.4   Lon=317.5
VCC A
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-18
199844428U52º22521289Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-1756
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-21
202046379U53º25724890Forecast
UNITE
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-22
199844031U52º23822789Forecast
STARLINK-1886
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-23
202047169U53º28528390Forecast
STARLINK-1827
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-25
202046724U53º31931891Forecast
STARLINK-1508
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-26
202045765U53º29929790Forecast
STARLINK-1914
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-28
202047180U53º31531391Forecast
STARLINK-2091
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-29
202147678U53º30530091Forecast
CZ-2F R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-3
202149327U41º33219790Forecast
STARLINK-1731
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-19
202046676U53º32231591Forecast
CRYOCUBE
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-24
199845260U52º33232291Forecast
AZTECHSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-10
199845261U52º33732891Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-10
202149128U96º28927490Forecast
NARSSCUBE-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-15
199844792U52º33732991Forecast
STARLINK-1178
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-18
202045063U53º30229691Forecast
2020-063G
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-26
202046395U50º28427390Forecast
STARLINK-1757
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-31
202046339U53º32532091Forecast
KRAKSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-14
199844427U52º34233691Forecast
STARLINK-2277
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-9
202148006U53º34633591Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-27
201843600U97º31730791Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-11
202046090U53º35034191Forecast
SL-3 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-30
198516111U97º33833091Forecast
STARLINK-2281
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-1
202148015U53º35134892Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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