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The space junk UGUISU is forecast to reentry Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 20:25 UTC +/- 8 hours
UGUISU

Forecast for UGUISU Reentry


Update Sun 1-Aug-2021 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk UGUISU (44330U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 20:25 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
CZ-2F R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-3
202148853U41º17514488Reentered!
Lat=3   Lon=177
CREW DRAGON DEMO-1 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-20
201944064U52º17716188Reentered!
Lat=-35.8   Lon=316
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-26
202148866U67º13912287Reentered!
Lat=49.9   Lon=277
STARLINK-1745
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-07-31
202046377U53º30830391Reentered!
Forecast
STARLINK-1592
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-1
202046139U53º27926890Reentered!
Lat=49.3   Lon=24.7
STARLINK-2276
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-4
202148601U53º34234091Forecast
SL-25 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-6
202149045U52º30618389Forecast
STARLINK-1779
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-9
202047123U53º31930891Forecast
ENTRYSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-10
199844429U52º27426890Forecast
STARLINK-1127
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-13
202045091U53º34133991Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-13
201843637U98º29521690Forecast
STARLINK-1685
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-17
202046540U53º32131991Forecast
STARLINK-1897
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-19
202046761U53º33732691Forecast
STARLINK-1796
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-24
202046697U53º34333291Forecast
STARLINK-1163
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-25
202045069U53º30029991Forecast
STARLINK-1855
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-25
202047142U53º33832591Forecast
KESTREL EYE IIM (KE2M)
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-27
199842982U52º25424389Forecast
STARLINK-1025
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-08-28
201944730U53º32732291Forecast
CZ-4B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-3
202045942U98º31524390Forecast
STARLINK-1691
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-5
202046373U53º33332991Forecast
STARLINK-1937
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-7
202046773U53º33933691Forecast
STARLINK-1562
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-11
202046057U53º30129991Forecast
STARLINK-1935
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-18
202046771U53º33233091Forecast
1998-067PN
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-09-21
199843638U52º30330191Forecast
RAAVANA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-6
199844329U52º32532191Forecast
NEPALISAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-7
199844331U52º32532191Forecast
UGUISU
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-13
199844330U52º32832391Forecast
SPOOQY-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-16
199844332U52º33032591Forecast
AEROCUBE 8B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-20
201540660U55º34028191Forecast
VCC B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-20
199844431U52º33132991Forecast
VCC A
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-28
199844428U52º33433191Forecast
UNITE
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-10-29
199844031U52º32432191Forecast
STARLINK-2567
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-4
202148276U53º35134892Forecast
AEROCUBE 8A
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-7
201540659U55º34728491Forecast
STARLINK-2616
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-8
202148695U53º35134892Forecast
STARLINK-1756
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-11-26
202046379U53º34533491Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-5
201843600U97º31630691Forecast
STARLINK-2627
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-9
202148687U53º35134892Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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