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The space junk QARMAN is forecast to reentry Friday, 04 Feb 2022 at 15:21 UTC +/- 8 hours
QARMAN

Forecast for QARMAN Reentry


Update Sat 15-Jan-2022 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk QARMAN (45263U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Friday, 04 Feb 2022 at 15:21 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-17
202149952U42º15213287Reentered!
Forecast
YZ-1S R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-19
202149386U98º17412487Reentered!
Forecast
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-12-22
202149502U97º20110988Reentered!
Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-15
202147970U45º19016488Reentered!
Lat=-40.9   Lon=265.6
STARLINK-2289
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-16
202147983U53º22020989Forecast
STARLINK-2302
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-16
202148024U53º21420189Forecast
STARLINK-2261
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-16
202148004U53º23522489Forecast
STARLINK-2281
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-16
202148015U53º23422289Forecast
STARLINK-2287
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-16
202148035U53º23322289Forecast
KRAKSAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-17
199844427U52º22921789Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-20
202250854U53º27720089Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-21
202250855U53º28319989Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-21
202250853U53º28520189Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-22
202250852U53º29320089Forecast
EPSILON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-22
202149405U98º30318789Forecast
STARLINK-1599
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-25
202046143U53º34033891Forecast
STARLINK-1840
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-26
202047131U53º30930791Forecast
STARLINK-1988
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-01-28
202147584U53º31931691Forecast
STARLINK-43
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-3
201944257U53º32731591Forecast
STARLINK-1751
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-3
202046378U53º30430291Forecast
QARMAN
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-4
199845263U52º30129690Forecast
1998-067RC
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-6
199845259U52º30429891Forecast
STARLINK-1786
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-8
202046688U53º30529491Forecast
STARLINK-1204
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-13
202045203U53º30029790Forecast
QUETZAL-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-02-27
199845598U52º33132591Forecast
STARLINK-1379
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-3
202045549U53º30529891Forecast
ISARA
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-4
201743050U52º33132491Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-7
202046090U53º30930091Forecast
STARLINK-2313
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-7
202147986U53º33832891Forecast
DEMI
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-8
199845916U52º34233991Forecast
STARLINK-1668
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-13
202046536U53º33130991Forecast
STARLINK-1064
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-15
201944769U53º32231891Forecast
SL-3 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-03-25
198516111U97º30830491Forecast
STARLINK-1945
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-4
202046775U53º30129991Forecast
STARLINK-1853
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-7
202047140U53º29828990Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-11
202046086U53º33732491Forecast
STARLINK-1469
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-13
202045752U53º33032391Forecast
STARLINK-2177
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-15
202147759U53º34634391Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-22
202046087U53º33432391Forecast
STARLINK-2200
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-23
202147414U97º30929791Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-23
201843600U97º31630791Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-04-24
202046084U53º34233191Forecast
STARLINK-2201
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-13
202147415U97º30629991Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-05-15
202046085U53º34033191Forecast
STARLINK-1439
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-1
202045716U53º33332791Forecast
STARLINK-1985
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-06-5
202147631U53º33833691Forecast
STARLINK-2202
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-07-23
202147416U97º30530191Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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